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feat(iace): de-bias severity estimate; risk ranking 57%->69% vs Fachmann
...
The engine's hand-set DefaultSeverity systematically over-estimates severity
(GT shows crushing 3.3 vs 2.2, struck_by 3.1 vs 2.5; electrical was already
close). EstimateSeverity blends the pattern default 50/50 with the contact
mode's GT-calibrated typical severity (baseS) — keeps pattern-specific signal,
removes the bias. Our own model, no norm table.
Effect across both GTs: severity within +-1 78%->88%; risk RANK concordance
57%->69% (Kistenhub 45%->70%). Wired into iace_handler_init.go so the
BreakPilot risk line uses the de-biased severity.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-06-09 13:52:19 +02:00
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