feat(pitch-deck): Bear/Bull scenarios from DB + Assumptions slide reads all 3

4 new fp_scenarios created on production:
- Wandeldarlehen Bear (5%/8% growth, 1.5x churn → 11 customers 2030)
- Wandeldarlehen Bull (12%/16% growth, 0.7x churn → 999 customers 2030)
- 1 Mio Bear (6%/10% growth, 1.5x churn → 22 customers 2030)
- 1 Mio Bull (12%/18% growth, 0.7x churn → 2574 customers 2030)

AssumptionsSlide loads all 3 scenarios (Bear/Base/Bull) from their
respective fp_* tables. No more scaling factors — real DB data.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

pitch-deck/components/slides/AssumptionsSlide.tsx

@@ -15,181 +15,130 @@ interface AssumptionsSlideProps {
   isWandeldarlehen?: boolean
 }
 
-function fmtArr(v: number, de: boolean): string {
-  if (v >= 1_000_000) {
-    const m = (v / 1_000_000).toFixed(1)
-    return de ? `~${m.replace('.', ',')} Mio. EUR` : `~EUR ${m}M`
-  }
-  return de ? `~${Math.round(v / 1000)}k EUR` : `~EUR ${Math.round(v / 1000)}k`
-}
-
-function fmtCash(v: number, de: boolean): string {
-  if (Math.abs(v) >= 1_000_000) {
-    const m = (v / 1_000_000).toFixed(1)
-    return de ? `~${m.replace('.', ',')} Mio. EUR` : `~EUR ${m}M`
-  }
-  return de ? `~${Math.round(v / 1000)}k EUR` : `~EUR ${Math.round(v / 1000)}k`
-}
-
 interface SheetRow {
   row_label?: string
   values?: Record<string, number>
   values_total?: Record<string, number>
-  is_sum_row?: boolean
 }
 
-export default function AssumptionsSlide({ lang, investorId, preferredScenarioId, isWandeldarlehen }: AssumptionsSlideProps) {
-  const i = t(lang)
-  const de = lang === 'de'
+interface ScenarioKPIs {
+  arr: number
+  customers: number
+  headcount: number
+  cash: number
+  breakEvenYear: string
+}
 
-  // Load KPIs from fp_* tables (source of truth)
-  const [baseKPIs, setBaseKPIs] = useState<Record<string, number>>({})
+function fmtArr(v: number, de: boolean): string {
+  if (v >= 1_000_000) return de ? `~${(v / 1_000_000).toFixed(1).replace('.', ',')} Mio. EUR` : `~EUR ${(v / 1_000_000).toFixed(1)}M`
+  if (v >= 1000) return de ? `~${Math.round(v / 1000)}k EUR` : `~EUR ${Math.round(v / 1000)}k`
+  return de ? `~${v} EUR` : `~EUR ${v}`
+}
 
-  useEffect(() => {
-    async function load() {
+function fmtCash(v: number, de: boolean): string {
+  if (Math.abs(v) >= 1_000_000) return de ? `~${(v / 1_000_000).toFixed(1).replace('.', ',')} Mio. EUR` : `~EUR ${(v / 1_000_000).toFixed(1)}M`
+  return de ? `~${Math.round(v / 1000)}k EUR` : `~EUR ${Math.round(v / 1000)}k`
+}
+
+async function loadScenarioKPIs(scenarioId: string | null): Promise<ScenarioKPIs> {
+  const param = scenarioId ? `?scenarioId=${scenarioId}` : ''
   try {
-        const scenarioParam = isWandeldarlehen ? '?scenarioId=c0000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000200' : ''
     const [guvRes, liqRes, persRes, kundenRes] = await Promise.all([
-          fetch(`/api/finanzplan/guv${scenarioParam}`, { cache: 'no-store' }),
-          fetch(`/api/finanzplan/liquiditaet${scenarioParam}`, { cache: 'no-store' }),
-          fetch(`/api/finanzplan/personalkosten${scenarioParam}`, { cache: 'no-store' }),
-          fetch(`/api/finanzplan/kunden${scenarioParam}`, { cache: 'no-store' }),
+      fetch(`/api/finanzplan/guv${param}`, { cache: 'no-store' }),
+      fetch(`/api/finanzplan/liquiditaet${param}`, { cache: 'no-store' }),
+      fetch(`/api/finanzplan/personalkosten${param}`, { cache: 'no-store' }),
+      fetch(`/api/finanzplan/kunden${param}`, { cache: 'no-store' }),
     ])
     const [guv, liq, pers, kunden] = await Promise.all([guvRes.json(), liqRes.json(), persRes.json(), kundenRes.json()])
-
     const findGuv = (label: string) => (guv.rows || []).find((r: SheetRow) => (r.row_label || '').includes(label))
     const findLiq = (label: string) => (liq.rows || []).find((r: SheetRow) => (r.row_label || '').includes(label))
     const kundenGesamt = (kunden.rows || []).find((r: SheetRow) => r.row_label === 'Bestandskunden gesamt')
 
-        const arr = findGuv('Umsatzerlöse')?.values?.y2030 || 0
-        const customers = kundenGesamt?.values?.m60 || 0
-        const headcount = (pers.rows || []).filter((r: SheetRow) => ((r.values_total || r.values)?.m60 || 0) > 0).length
-        const cash = findLiq('LIQUIDIT')?.values?.m60 || findLiq('LIQUIDITAET')?.values?.m60 || 0
     const ebit = findGuv('EBIT')?.values || {}
-        // Find break-even year
     let breakEvenYear = '—'
     for (const y of [2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030]) {
       if ((ebit[`y${y}`] || 0) > 0) { breakEvenYear = String(y); break }
     }
 
-        setBaseKPIs({ arr, customers, headcount, cash, breakEvenYear: parseInt(breakEvenYear) || 0 })
-      } catch { /* ignore */ }
+    return {
+      arr: findGuv('Umsatzerlöse')?.values?.y2030 || 0,
+      customers: kundenGesamt?.values?.m60 || 0,
+      headcount: (pers.rows || []).filter((r: SheetRow) => ((r.values_total || r.values)?.m60 || 0) > 0).length,
+      cash: findLiq('LIQUIDIT')?.values?.m60 || findLiq('LIQUIDITAET')?.values?.m60 || 0,
+      breakEvenYear,
+    }
+  } catch {
+    return { arr: 0, customers: 0, headcount: 0, cash: 0, breakEvenYear: '—' }
+  }
+}
+
+export default function AssumptionsSlide({ lang, isWandeldarlehen }: AssumptionsSlideProps) {
+  const i = t(lang)
+  const de = lang === 'de'
+
+  const [scenarioData, setScenarioData] = useState<{ bear: ScenarioKPIs; base: ScenarioKPIs; bull: ScenarioKPIs } | null>(null)
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    async function load() {
+      const baseId = isWandeldarlehen ? 'c0000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000200' : null
+      const bearId = isWandeldarlehen ? 'd0000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000201' : 'd0000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000301'
+      const bullId = isWandeldarlehen ? 'd0000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000202' : 'd0000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000302'
+      const [bear, base, bull] = await Promise.all([loadScenarioKPIs(bearId), loadScenarioKPIs(baseId), loadScenarioKPIs(bullId)])
+      setScenarioData({ bear, base, bull })
     }
     load()
   }, [isWandeldarlehen])
 
-  const baseCustomers = baseKPIs.customers || 0
-  const baseArr = baseKPIs.arr || 0
-  const baseEmployees = baseKPIs.headcount || 0
-  const baseCash = baseKPIs.cash || 0
-  const baseBreakEven = baseKPIs.breakEvenYear ? String(baseKPIs.breakEvenYear) : '—'
-
-  // Bear/Bull scaled from Base
-  const bearCustomers = Math.round(baseCustomers * 0.5)
-  const bearArr = baseArr * 0.42
-  const bearEmployees = Math.round(baseEmployees * 0.7)
-  const bearCash = Math.round(baseCash * 0.3)
-  const bearBreakEven = baseKPIs.breakEvenYear ? String(baseKPIs.breakEvenYear + 1) : '—'
-
-  const bullCustomers = Math.round(baseCustomers * 1.7)
-  const bullArr = baseArr * 1.8
-  const bullEmployees = Math.round(baseEmployees * 1.3)
-  const bullCash = Math.round(baseCash * 2.0)
-  const bullBreakEven = baseKPIs.breakEvenYear ? String(baseKPIs.breakEvenYear - 1) : '—'
+  const bear = scenarioData?.bear || { arr: 0, customers: 0, headcount: 0, cash: 0, breakEvenYear: '—' }
+  const base = scenarioData?.base || { arr: 0, customers: 0, headcount: 0, cash: 0, breakEvenYear: '—' }
+  const bull = scenarioData?.bull || { arr: 0, customers: 0, headcount: 0, cash: 0, breakEvenYear: '—' }
 
   const baseAssumptions = isWandeldarlehen
     ? (de ? [
-        `Kundenwachstum: 8% monatlich (Slow), ab m32: 15%`,
+        'Kundenwachstum: 8% monatlich, ab m32: 15%',
         'Mix: 60% Starter, 25% Professional, 15% Enterprise',
-        `Personalaufbau: 3→${baseEmployees} Personen (lean)`,
+        `Personalaufbau: 3→${base.headcount} Personen (lean)`,
         'Serverkosten: 50€/Kunde + 300€ Basis',
-        `Break-Even ${baseBreakEven}`,
       ] : [
-        `Customer growth: 8% monthly (slow), from m32: 15%`,
+        'Customer growth: 8% monthly, from m32: 15%',
         'Mix: 60% Starter, 25% Professional, 15% Enterprise',
-        `Hiring: 3→${baseEmployees} people (lean)`,
+        `Hiring: 3→${base.headcount} people (lean)`,
         'Server costs: €50/customer + €300 base',
-        `Break-even ${baseBreakEven}`,
       ])
     : (de ? [
-        'Kundenwachstum wie geplant (5→1.200)',
+        'Kundenwachstum wie geplant (5→1.200+)',
         'Mix: 60% Starter, 25% Professional, 15% Enterprise',
         'Personalaufbau 5→10→17→25→35',
         'Serverkosten 100€ pro Kunde + 2.000€ Basis',
-        'Break-Even Mitte 2029',
       ] : [
-        'Customer growth as planned (5→1,200)',
+        'Customer growth as planned (5→1,200+)',
         'Mix: 60% Starter, 25% Professional, 15% Enterprise',
         'Hiring 5→10→17→25→35',
         'Server costs €100 per customer + €2,000 base',
-        'Break-even mid 2029',
       ])
 
   const cases = [
     {
-      name: 'Bear Case',
-      icon: TrendingDown,
-      color: 'text-red-400',
-      bg: 'bg-red-500/10 border-red-500/20',
+      name: 'Bear Case', icon: TrendingDown, color: 'text-red-400', bg: 'bg-red-500/10 border-red-500/20',
       desc: de ? 'Langsames Wachstum, höhere Churn' : 'Slow growth, higher churn',
-      assumptions: de ? [
-        'Kundenwachstum 50% langsamer als Base',
-        'Churn Rate 8% pro Monat (Startups)',
-        'Durchschnittspreis 20% niedriger',
-        'Personalaufbau verzögert um 6 Monate',
-      ] : [
-        'Customer growth 50% slower than base',
-        'Churn rate 8% per month (startups)',
-        'Average price 20% lower',
-        'Hiring delayed by 6 months',
-      ],
-      kpis: {
-        kunden2030: `~${bearCustomers.toLocaleString('de-DE')}`,
-        arr2030: fmtArr(bearArr, de),
-        ma2030: String(bearEmployees),
-        breakEven: bearBreakEven,
-        cash2030: fmtCash(bearCash, de),
-      },
+      assumptions: de
+        ? ['Kundenwachstum 40% langsamer', 'Churn Rate 50% höher', 'Personalaufbau wie Base Case']
+        : ['Customer growth 40% slower', 'Churn rate 50% higher', 'Hiring same as base case'],
+      kpis: bear,
     },
     {
-      name: 'Base Case',
-      icon: Minus,
-      color: 'text-indigo-400',
-      bg: 'bg-indigo-500/10 border-indigo-500/20',
+      name: 'Base Case', icon: Minus, color: 'text-indigo-400', bg: 'bg-indigo-500/10 border-indigo-500/20',
       desc: de ? 'Aktueller Finanzplan' : 'Current financial plan',
       assumptions: baseAssumptions,
-      kpis: {
-        kunden2030: `~${baseCustomers.toLocaleString('de-DE')}`,
-        arr2030: fmtArr(baseArr, de),
-        ma2030: String(baseEmployees),
-        breakEven: baseBreakEven,
-        cash2030: fmtCash(baseCash, de),
-      },
+      kpis: base,
     },
     {
-      name: 'Bull Case',
-      icon: TrendingUp,
-      color: 'text-emerald-400',
-      bg: 'bg-emerald-500/10 border-emerald-500/20',
+      name: 'Bull Case', icon: TrendingUp, color: 'text-emerald-400', bg: 'bg-emerald-500/10 border-emerald-500/20',
       desc: de ? 'Beschleunigtes Wachstum' : 'Accelerated growth',
-      assumptions: de ? [
-        'Kundenwachstum 70% schneller (Regulierungsdruck)',
-        'Enterprise-Anteil steigt auf 20%',
-        'Durchschnittspreis 15% höher (Upselling)',
-        'Channel-Partner ab Q1/2028',
-      ] : [
-        'Customer growth 70% faster (regulation pressure)',
-        'Enterprise share rises to 20%',
-        'Average price 15% higher (upselling)',
-        'Channel partners from Q1/2028',
-      ],
-      kpis: {
-        kunden2030: `~${bullCustomers.toLocaleString('de-DE')}`,
-        arr2030: fmtArr(bullArr, de),
-        ma2030: String(bullEmployees),
-        breakEven: bullBreakEven,
-        cash2030: fmtCash(bullCash, de),
-      },
+      assumptions: de
+        ? ['Kundenwachstum 30-50% schneller', 'Churn Rate 30% niedriger', 'Personalaufbau wie Base Case']
+        : ['Customer growth 30-50% faster', 'Churn rate 30% lower', 'Hiring same as base case'],
+      kpis: bull,
     },
   ]
 
@@ -213,7 +162,6 @@ export default function AssumptionsSlide({ lang, investorId, preferredScenarioId
                   <h3 className={`text-base font-bold ${c.color}`}>{c.name}</h3>
                 </div>
                 <p className="text-xs text-white/40 mb-3">{c.desc}</p>
-
                 <div className="space-y-1.5 mb-4">
                   {c.assumptions.map((a, i) => (
                     <p key={i} className="text-xs text-white/60 pl-3 relative">
@@ -222,14 +170,13 @@ export default function AssumptionsSlide({ lang, investorId, preferredScenarioId
                     </p>
                   ))}
                 </div>
-
                 <div className="border-t border-white/10 pt-3 space-y-1.5">
                   {[
-                    { label: de ? 'Kunden 2030' : 'Customers 2030', value: c.kpis.kunden2030 },
-                    { label: 'ARR 2030', value: c.kpis.arr2030 },
-                    { label: de ? 'Mitarbeiter' : 'Employees', value: c.kpis.ma2030 },
-                    { label: 'Break-Even', value: c.kpis.breakEven },
-                    { label: 'Cash 2030', value: c.kpis.cash2030 },
+                    { label: de ? 'Kunden 2030' : 'Customers 2030', value: `~${c.kpis.customers.toLocaleString('de-DE')}` },
+                    { label: 'ARR 2030', value: fmtArr(c.kpis.arr, de) },
+                    { label: de ? 'Mitarbeiter' : 'Employees', value: String(c.kpis.headcount) },
+                    { label: 'Break-Even', value: c.kpis.breakEvenYear },
+                    { label: 'Cash 2030', value: fmtCash(c.kpis.cash, de) },
                   ].map((kpi, i) => (
                     <div key={i} className="flex justify-between text-xs">
                       <span className="text-white/40">{kpi.label}</span>
@@ -243,7 +190,6 @@ export default function AssumptionsSlide({ lang, investorId, preferredScenarioId
         })}
       </div>
 
-      {/* Comparison Table */}
       <FadeInView delay={0.5}>
         <GlassCard hover={false} className="p-4">
           <h3 className="text-xs font-bold text-white/40 uppercase tracking-wider mb-3">
@@ -260,11 +206,11 @@ export default function AssumptionsSlide({ lang, investorId, preferredScenarioId
             </thead>
             <tbody>
               {[
-                { label: de ? 'Kunden' : 'Customers', bear: cases[0].kpis.kunden2030, base: cases[1].kpis.kunden2030, bull: cases[2].kpis.kunden2030 },
-                { label: 'ARR', bear: cases[0].kpis.arr2030, base: cases[1].kpis.arr2030, bull: cases[2].kpis.arr2030 },
-                { label: de ? 'Mitarbeiter' : 'Employees', bear: cases[0].kpis.ma2030, base: cases[1].kpis.ma2030, bull: cases[2].kpis.ma2030 },
-                { label: 'Break-Even', bear: cases[0].kpis.breakEven, base: cases[1].kpis.breakEven, bull: cases[2].kpis.breakEven },
-                { label: 'Cash', bear: cases[0].kpis.cash2030, base: cases[1].kpis.cash2030, bull: cases[2].kpis.cash2030 },
+                { label: de ? 'Kunden' : 'Customers', bear: `~${bear.customers.toLocaleString('de-DE')}`, base: `~${base.customers.toLocaleString('de-DE')}`, bull: `~${bull.customers.toLocaleString('de-DE')}` },
+                { label: 'ARR', bear: fmtArr(bear.arr, de), base: fmtArr(base.arr, de), bull: fmtArr(bull.arr, de) },
+                { label: de ? 'Mitarbeiter' : 'Employees', bear: String(bear.headcount), base: String(base.headcount), bull: String(bull.headcount) },
+                { label: 'Break-Even', bear: bear.breakEvenYear, base: base.breakEvenYear, bull: bull.breakEvenYear },
+                { label: 'Cash', bear: fmtCash(bear.cash, de), base: fmtCash(base.cash, de), bull: fmtCash(bull.cash, de) },
               ].map((row, idx) => (
                 <tr key={idx} className="border-b border-white/[0.03]">
                   <td className="py-1.5 text-white/60">{row.label}</td>