From 0b30c5e66c9ddd45d3866108db61f09c77e18a75 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Benjamin Admin Date: Sun, 19 Apr 2026 18:04:59 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] feat(pitch-deck): Bear/Bull scenarios from DB + Assumptions slide reads all 3 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit 4 new fp_scenarios created on production: - Wandeldarlehen Bear (5%/8% growth, 1.5x churn → 11 customers 2030) - Wandeldarlehen Bull (12%/16% growth, 0.7x churn → 999 customers 2030) - 1 Mio Bear (6%/10% growth, 1.5x churn → 22 customers 2030) - 1 Mio Bull (12%/18% growth, 0.7x churn → 2574 customers 2030) AssumptionsSlide loads all 3 scenarios (Bear/Base/Bull) from their respective fp_* tables. No more scaling factors — real DB data. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) --- .../components/slides/AssumptionsSlide.tsx | 232 +++++++----------- 1 file changed, 89 insertions(+), 143 deletions(-) diff --git a/pitch-deck/components/slides/AssumptionsSlide.tsx b/pitch-deck/components/slides/AssumptionsSlide.tsx index f20e594..ea310ad 100644 --- a/pitch-deck/components/slides/AssumptionsSlide.tsx +++ b/pitch-deck/components/slides/AssumptionsSlide.tsx @@ -15,181 +15,130 @@ interface AssumptionsSlideProps { isWandeldarlehen?: boolean } -function fmtArr(v: number, de: boolean): string { - if (v >= 1_000_000) { - const m = (v / 1_000_000).toFixed(1) - return de ? `~${m.replace('.', ',')} Mio. EUR` : `~EUR ${m}M` - } - return de ? `~${Math.round(v / 1000)}k EUR` : `~EUR ${Math.round(v / 1000)}k` -} - -function fmtCash(v: number, de: boolean): string { - if (Math.abs(v) >= 1_000_000) { - const m = (v / 1_000_000).toFixed(1) - return de ? `~${m.replace('.', ',')} Mio. EUR` : `~EUR ${m}M` - } - return de ? `~${Math.round(v / 1000)}k EUR` : `~EUR ${Math.round(v / 1000)}k` -} - interface SheetRow { row_label?: string values?: Record values_total?: Record - is_sum_row?: boolean } -export default function AssumptionsSlide({ lang, investorId, preferredScenarioId, isWandeldarlehen }: AssumptionsSlideProps) { +interface ScenarioKPIs { + arr: number + customers: number + headcount: number + cash: number + breakEvenYear: string +} + +function fmtArr(v: number, de: boolean): string { + if (v >= 1_000_000) return de ? `~${(v / 1_000_000).toFixed(1).replace('.', ',')} Mio. EUR` : `~EUR ${(v / 1_000_000).toFixed(1)}M` + if (v >= 1000) return de ? `~${Math.round(v / 1000)}k EUR` : `~EUR ${Math.round(v / 1000)}k` + return de ? `~${v} EUR` : `~EUR ${v}` +} + +function fmtCash(v: number, de: boolean): string { + if (Math.abs(v) >= 1_000_000) return de ? `~${(v / 1_000_000).toFixed(1).replace('.', ',')} Mio. EUR` : `~EUR ${(v / 1_000_000).toFixed(1)}M` + return de ? `~${Math.round(v / 1000)}k EUR` : `~EUR ${Math.round(v / 1000)}k` +} + +async function loadScenarioKPIs(scenarioId: string | null): Promise { + const param = scenarioId ? `?scenarioId=${scenarioId}` : '' + try { + const [guvRes, liqRes, persRes, kundenRes] = await Promise.all([ + fetch(`/api/finanzplan/guv${param}`, { cache: 'no-store' }), + fetch(`/api/finanzplan/liquiditaet${param}`, { cache: 'no-store' }), + fetch(`/api/finanzplan/personalkosten${param}`, { cache: 'no-store' }), + fetch(`/api/finanzplan/kunden${param}`, { cache: 'no-store' }), + ]) + const [guv, liq, pers, kunden] = await Promise.all([guvRes.json(), liqRes.json(), persRes.json(), kundenRes.json()]) + const findGuv = (label: string) => (guv.rows || []).find((r: SheetRow) => (r.row_label || '').includes(label)) + const findLiq = (label: string) => (liq.rows || []).find((r: SheetRow) => (r.row_label || '').includes(label)) + const kundenGesamt = (kunden.rows || []).find((r: SheetRow) => r.row_label === 'Bestandskunden gesamt') + + const ebit = findGuv('EBIT')?.values || {} + let breakEvenYear = '—' + for (const y of [2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030]) { + if ((ebit[`y${y}`] || 0) > 0) { breakEvenYear = String(y); break } + } + + return { + arr: findGuv('Umsatzerlöse')?.values?.y2030 || 0, + customers: kundenGesamt?.values?.m60 || 0, + headcount: (pers.rows || []).filter((r: SheetRow) => ((r.values_total || r.values)?.m60 || 0) > 0).length, + cash: findLiq('LIQUIDIT')?.values?.m60 || findLiq('LIQUIDITAET')?.values?.m60 || 0, + breakEvenYear, + } + } catch { + return { arr: 0, customers: 0, headcount: 0, cash: 0, breakEvenYear: '—' } + } +} + +export default function AssumptionsSlide({ lang, isWandeldarlehen }: AssumptionsSlideProps) { const i = t(lang) const de = lang === 'de' - // Load KPIs from fp_* tables (source of truth) - const [baseKPIs, setBaseKPIs] = useState>({}) + const [scenarioData, setScenarioData] = useState<{ bear: ScenarioKPIs; base: ScenarioKPIs; bull: ScenarioKPIs } | null>(null) useEffect(() => { async function load() { - try { - const scenarioParam = isWandeldarlehen ? '?scenarioId=c0000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000200' : '' - const [guvRes, liqRes, persRes, kundenRes] = await Promise.all([ - fetch(`/api/finanzplan/guv${scenarioParam}`, { cache: 'no-store' }), - fetch(`/api/finanzplan/liquiditaet${scenarioParam}`, { cache: 'no-store' }), - fetch(`/api/finanzplan/personalkosten${scenarioParam}`, { cache: 'no-store' }), - fetch(`/api/finanzplan/kunden${scenarioParam}`, { cache: 'no-store' }), - ]) - const [guv, liq, pers, kunden] = await Promise.all([guvRes.json(), liqRes.json(), persRes.json(), kundenRes.json()]) - - const findGuv = (label: string) => (guv.rows || []).find((r: SheetRow) => (r.row_label || '').includes(label)) - const findLiq = (label: string) => (liq.rows || []).find((r: SheetRow) => (r.row_label || '').includes(label)) - const kundenGesamt = (kunden.rows || []).find((r: SheetRow) => r.row_label === 'Bestandskunden gesamt') - - const arr = findGuv('Umsatzerlöse')?.values?.y2030 || 0 - const customers = kundenGesamt?.values?.m60 || 0 - const headcount = (pers.rows || []).filter((r: SheetRow) => ((r.values_total || r.values)?.m60 || 0) > 0).length - const cash = findLiq('LIQUIDIT')?.values?.m60 || findLiq('LIQUIDITAET')?.values?.m60 || 0 - const ebit = findGuv('EBIT')?.values || {} - // Find break-even year - let breakEvenYear = '—' - for (const y of [2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030]) { - if ((ebit[`y${y}`] || 0) > 0) { breakEvenYear = String(y); break } - } - - setBaseKPIs({ arr, customers, headcount, cash, breakEvenYear: parseInt(breakEvenYear) || 0 }) - } catch { /* ignore */ } + const baseId = isWandeldarlehen ? 'c0000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000200' : null + const bearId = isWandeldarlehen ? 'd0000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000201' : 'd0000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000301' + const bullId = isWandeldarlehen ? 'd0000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000202' : 'd0000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000302' + const [bear, base, bull] = await Promise.all([loadScenarioKPIs(bearId), loadScenarioKPIs(baseId), loadScenarioKPIs(bullId)]) + setScenarioData({ bear, base, bull }) } load() }, [isWandeldarlehen]) - const baseCustomers = baseKPIs.customers || 0 - const baseArr = baseKPIs.arr || 0 - const baseEmployees = baseKPIs.headcount || 0 - const baseCash = baseKPIs.cash || 0 - const baseBreakEven = baseKPIs.breakEvenYear ? String(baseKPIs.breakEvenYear) : '—' - - // Bear/Bull scaled from Base - const bearCustomers = Math.round(baseCustomers * 0.5) - const bearArr = baseArr * 0.42 - const bearEmployees = Math.round(baseEmployees * 0.7) - const bearCash = Math.round(baseCash * 0.3) - const bearBreakEven = baseKPIs.breakEvenYear ? String(baseKPIs.breakEvenYear + 1) : '—' - - const bullCustomers = Math.round(baseCustomers * 1.7) - const bullArr = baseArr * 1.8 - const bullEmployees = Math.round(baseEmployees * 1.3) - const bullCash = Math.round(baseCash * 2.0) - const bullBreakEven = baseKPIs.breakEvenYear ? String(baseKPIs.breakEvenYear - 1) : '—' + const bear = scenarioData?.bear || { arr: 0, customers: 0, headcount: 0, cash: 0, breakEvenYear: '—' } + const base = scenarioData?.base || { arr: 0, customers: 0, headcount: 0, cash: 0, breakEvenYear: '—' } + const bull = scenarioData?.bull || { arr: 0, customers: 0, headcount: 0, cash: 0, breakEvenYear: '—' } const baseAssumptions = isWandeldarlehen ? (de ? [ - `Kundenwachstum: 8% monatlich (Slow), ab m32: 15%`, + 'Kundenwachstum: 8% monatlich, ab m32: 15%', 'Mix: 60% Starter, 25% Professional, 15% Enterprise', - `Personalaufbau: 3→${baseEmployees} Personen (lean)`, + `Personalaufbau: 3→${base.headcount} Personen (lean)`, 'Serverkosten: 50€/Kunde + 300€ Basis', - `Break-Even ${baseBreakEven}`, ] : [ - `Customer growth: 8% monthly (slow), from m32: 15%`, + 'Customer growth: 8% monthly, from m32: 15%', 'Mix: 60% Starter, 25% Professional, 15% Enterprise', - `Hiring: 3→${baseEmployees} people (lean)`, + `Hiring: 3→${base.headcount} people (lean)`, 'Server costs: €50/customer + €300 base', - `Break-even ${baseBreakEven}`, ]) : (de ? [ - 'Kundenwachstum wie geplant (5→1.200)', + 'Kundenwachstum wie geplant (5→1.200+)', 'Mix: 60% Starter, 25% Professional, 15% Enterprise', 'Personalaufbau 5→10→17→25→35', 'Serverkosten 100€ pro Kunde + 2.000€ Basis', - 'Break-Even Mitte 2029', ] : [ - 'Customer growth as planned (5→1,200)', + 'Customer growth as planned (5→1,200+)', 'Mix: 60% Starter, 25% Professional, 15% Enterprise', 'Hiring 5→10→17→25→35', 'Server costs €100 per customer + €2,000 base', - 'Break-even mid 2029', ]) const cases = [ { - name: 'Bear Case', - icon: TrendingDown, - color: 'text-red-400', - bg: 'bg-red-500/10 border-red-500/20', + name: 'Bear Case', icon: TrendingDown, color: 'text-red-400', bg: 'bg-red-500/10 border-red-500/20', desc: de ? 'Langsames Wachstum, höhere Churn' : 'Slow growth, higher churn', - assumptions: de ? [ - 'Kundenwachstum 50% langsamer als Base', - 'Churn Rate 8% pro Monat (Startups)', - 'Durchschnittspreis 20% niedriger', - 'Personalaufbau verzögert um 6 Monate', - ] : [ - 'Customer growth 50% slower than base', - 'Churn rate 8% per month (startups)', - 'Average price 20% lower', - 'Hiring delayed by 6 months', - ], - kpis: { - kunden2030: `~${bearCustomers.toLocaleString('de-DE')}`, - arr2030: fmtArr(bearArr, de), - ma2030: String(bearEmployees), - breakEven: bearBreakEven, - cash2030: fmtCash(bearCash, de), - }, + assumptions: de + ? ['Kundenwachstum 40% langsamer', 'Churn Rate 50% höher', 'Personalaufbau wie Base Case'] + : ['Customer growth 40% slower', 'Churn rate 50% higher', 'Hiring same as base case'], + kpis: bear, }, { - name: 'Base Case', - icon: Minus, - color: 'text-indigo-400', - bg: 'bg-indigo-500/10 border-indigo-500/20', + name: 'Base Case', icon: Minus, color: 'text-indigo-400', bg: 'bg-indigo-500/10 border-indigo-500/20', desc: de ? 'Aktueller Finanzplan' : 'Current financial plan', assumptions: baseAssumptions, - kpis: { - kunden2030: `~${baseCustomers.toLocaleString('de-DE')}`, - arr2030: fmtArr(baseArr, de), - ma2030: String(baseEmployees), - breakEven: baseBreakEven, - cash2030: fmtCash(baseCash, de), - }, + kpis: base, }, { - name: 'Bull Case', - icon: TrendingUp, - color: 'text-emerald-400', - bg: 'bg-emerald-500/10 border-emerald-500/20', + name: 'Bull Case', icon: TrendingUp, color: 'text-emerald-400', bg: 'bg-emerald-500/10 border-emerald-500/20', desc: de ? 'Beschleunigtes Wachstum' : 'Accelerated growth', - assumptions: de ? [ - 'Kundenwachstum 70% schneller (Regulierungsdruck)', - 'Enterprise-Anteil steigt auf 20%', - 'Durchschnittspreis 15% höher (Upselling)', - 'Channel-Partner ab Q1/2028', - ] : [ - 'Customer growth 70% faster (regulation pressure)', - 'Enterprise share rises to 20%', - 'Average price 15% higher (upselling)', - 'Channel partners from Q1/2028', - ], - kpis: { - kunden2030: `~${bullCustomers.toLocaleString('de-DE')}`, - arr2030: fmtArr(bullArr, de), - ma2030: String(bullEmployees), - breakEven: bullBreakEven, - cash2030: fmtCash(bullCash, de), - }, + assumptions: de + ? ['Kundenwachstum 30-50% schneller', 'Churn Rate 30% niedriger', 'Personalaufbau wie Base Case'] + : ['Customer growth 30-50% faster', 'Churn rate 30% lower', 'Hiring same as base case'], + kpis: bull, }, ] @@ -213,7 +162,6 @@ export default function AssumptionsSlide({ lang, investorId, preferredScenarioId

{c.name}

{c.desc}

-
{c.assumptions.map((a, i) => (

@@ -222,14 +170,13 @@ export default function AssumptionsSlide({ lang, investorId, preferredScenarioId

))}
-
{[ - { label: de ? 'Kunden 2030' : 'Customers 2030', value: c.kpis.kunden2030 }, - { label: 'ARR 2030', value: c.kpis.arr2030 }, - { label: de ? 'Mitarbeiter' : 'Employees', value: c.kpis.ma2030 }, - { label: 'Break-Even', value: c.kpis.breakEven }, - { label: 'Cash 2030', value: c.kpis.cash2030 }, + { label: de ? 'Kunden 2030' : 'Customers 2030', value: `~${c.kpis.customers.toLocaleString('de-DE')}` }, + { label: 'ARR 2030', value: fmtArr(c.kpis.arr, de) }, + { label: de ? 'Mitarbeiter' : 'Employees', value: String(c.kpis.headcount) }, + { label: 'Break-Even', value: c.kpis.breakEvenYear }, + { label: 'Cash 2030', value: fmtCash(c.kpis.cash, de) }, ].map((kpi, i) => (
{kpi.label} @@ -243,7 +190,6 @@ export default function AssumptionsSlide({ lang, investorId, preferredScenarioId })}
- {/* Comparison Table */}

@@ -260,11 +206,11 @@ export default function AssumptionsSlide({ lang, investorId, preferredScenarioId {[ - { label: de ? 'Kunden' : 'Customers', bear: cases[0].kpis.kunden2030, base: cases[1].kpis.kunden2030, bull: cases[2].kpis.kunden2030 }, - { label: 'ARR', bear: cases[0].kpis.arr2030, base: cases[1].kpis.arr2030, bull: cases[2].kpis.arr2030 }, - { label: de ? 'Mitarbeiter' : 'Employees', bear: cases[0].kpis.ma2030, base: cases[1].kpis.ma2030, bull: cases[2].kpis.ma2030 }, - { label: 'Break-Even', bear: cases[0].kpis.breakEven, base: cases[1].kpis.breakEven, bull: cases[2].kpis.breakEven }, - { label: 'Cash', bear: cases[0].kpis.cash2030, base: cases[1].kpis.cash2030, bull: cases[2].kpis.cash2030 }, + { label: de ? 'Kunden' : 'Customers', bear: `~${bear.customers.toLocaleString('de-DE')}`, base: `~${base.customers.toLocaleString('de-DE')}`, bull: `~${bull.customers.toLocaleString('de-DE')}` }, + { label: 'ARR', bear: fmtArr(bear.arr, de), base: fmtArr(base.arr, de), bull: fmtArr(bull.arr, de) }, + { label: de ? 'Mitarbeiter' : 'Employees', bear: String(bear.headcount), base: String(base.headcount), bull: String(bull.headcount) }, + { label: 'Break-Even', bear: bear.breakEvenYear, base: base.breakEvenYear, bull: bull.breakEvenYear }, + { label: 'Cash', bear: fmtCash(bear.cash, de), base: fmtCash(base.cash, de), bull: fmtCash(bull.cash, de) }, ].map((row, idx) => ( {row.label}